Monday, December 24, 2007

Political Prognostications



1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Ron Paul (media finally begins to take Ron Paul seriously)

New Hampshire
1) Romney
2) Ron Paul (I still think Paul can surprise everyone and win)
3) McCain

South Carolina
1) Huckabee
2) Ron Paul
3) Romney

1) Ron Paul
2) Romney
3) McCain

1) Ron Paul
2) Romney
3) Huckabee

Based on this estimate if you award 5 points for a first place finish, 3 points for a second, and 1 for a third (I know this is not how its done, but just making a point)

Ron Paul = 17
Romney = 15
Huckabee = 11
McCain = 2

If there is not vote fraud (my worst fear is they will do this to deny Ron Paul) I really see him being ahead after the first 5 states with a narrow lead over Romney.

Misc thoughts...

I see Romney winning Utah, and Massachusetts.
Huckabee will win Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi
Giuliani will win Florida, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

I still think Ron Paul can win Texas and California and get the nomination. Iowa is crucial though, even though I doubt he will win, he really has to finish third to get media attention going into New Hampshire.

Third in Iowa would be a considered a success and fourth would be a moderate disappointment for Paul supporters and his campaign, anything less than fourth would be a disaster.

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