In this original post a person uses the Club @ Brickell recent sales price to prove that the Miami Condo Market is undergoing an epic crash.
In the issue of fairness, and to tell both sides of the story, Realtor Kevin Tomlinson would like me to tell the other side of the story as he see's it.
Please enjoy his article and decide for yourself....
A story on Miami real estate? At first, the reporting seemed okay. But when I watched it again — a 60 Minutes real estate piece that mentions the troubled downtown Miami condo Jade on Brickell — I realized part of the story really missed the mark.
Here’s the problem I have with the media in this digital age. In the 25/7 rush to scoop each other on headline news, sometimes stories lack facts. Sometimes the “facts” presented aren’t entirely factual. And sometimes the interview is angled to fit the reporter’s notion of what the story is perceived or desired to be.
Don’t get me wrong. I have a lot of respect for the media in general and participate in many interviews myself. But like so many industries pressured by the ubiquity of Web information, and in the media’s case, significant declines in ad revenue, circulation, and staff resources, haste can make waste.
How did CBS make the already bad news about Jade on Brickell worse? 60 Minutes reporter Scott Pelley toured the downtown Miami condo with local broker Peter Zalewski and portrayed it as a victim of the subprime meltdown. False! This story line actually sounds better for Jade than the reality, but it disservices the truth.
The Real Story on Miami Condos
Anyone in Miami real estate since, say, 2004, knows that Jade’s problems are because of mortgage fraud, overspeculation, and oversupply, NOT because of subprime lending. It is well known that Jade sold at the VERY top of the market. It is also common knowledge here that the majority of Jade’s contract-holders are speculators, though no one would EVER admit it.
Jade on Brickell started closing units in 2004-2005, WELL BEFORE any hint of financial fallout. The 60 Minutes segment further misses the point by leaving out important details. For example, when people buy preconstruction condo units, they do so WITHOUT a mortgage contingency.
Flipping Miami Condos
When Miami’s condo rush was in full swing, money was cheap and easy to get. Condo sales were not hooked to the mortgage market. Cheap mortgages and subprime loans were not used as an enticement. Zalewski commented that Option Arm and Alt-A loans were “essential” for Miami condo buyers. Not the case.
Back then, obtaining a mortgage was rarely discussed because most buyers planned to flip (remember that word?) their condo BEFORE closing. Bad CBS.
I can name many high-end buildings that are or were RAMPANT with mortgage fraud. Hello! Where’s the story on that??
Jade’s issues, I repeat, are NOT from subprime lending practices, and Zalewski should have known that and pointed it out. In the 60 Minutes segment, new condos in the downtown Miami/Brickell area seem to be portrayed as a hotbed of foreclosure activity (because of the subprime collapses). They are not.
I wish CBS had asked another broker or agent for the real story and the real center of foreclosure activity in South Florida real estate. But since they didn’t, I’ll help them out: Homestead, Florida. Working class Homestead, Florida.
Some of the more interesting (and hopefully more accurate) footage in the interview comes from Whitney Tilson, who tracks U.S. mortgage information. Here are the residential real estate loans coming up for readjustment:
- Sub Prime: $1 trillion. We seem to be near the end of these resets.
- Alt-As: $1 trillion.
- Option Arms: $500-600 billion.
Then there’s the commercial real estate market, but we won’t go there right now.
From the Credit Suisse graphs on CBS, it looks as if Alt A and Option Arm loan resets won’t peak until mid-2011. Yikes. These mortgage defaults could be more numerous and longer lasting than the subprime plunge.
Don’t you love the interview with the speculator who plays victim because she “didn’t ask enough questions” about her loan terms? Oh, okay. Sign six mortgages, but don’t read your contracts. This one gets the big “Duh!”
And did you see Oscar Munoz cleaning out ONE condo? He used to be a Miami real estate agent. Now banks hire his company to empty out foreclosed properties.
Peter: There really isn’t any way to spin “Vulture.” You tried, though.
Kevin Tomlinson
EWM Realtors
419 Arthur Godfrey Road
Miami Beach, FL 33140
305.674.4053 Direct
305.213.6898 Cell
305.675.8570 Fax
2 comments:
RE: The Housing Market, Foreclosures, and Job Loss:
On December 14, 2008, CBS’s 60 Minutes had a segment on the 2nd Wave of Foreclosures. They indicated that experts were expecting another wave of mortgage defaults on ALT-A and Option ARMs mortgages which will dwarf the Subprime Mortgage Crisis.
Many fail to realize that there are millions of self-employed smaller businesses, who employ from 1-10 employees, that are holding the mortgages that are going to reset in 2009 through 2012. These borrowers are Prime and Near-Prime borrowers who hold ALT-A, Option ARMs, Interest-Only mortgages. There are $1 Trillion ALT-As, and $500-600 Billion Option ARMs.
So, here we have a major problem… Not only will these small business owners lose their homes, but there will be the resulting JOB LOSSES on their business failure. Note, although President-Elect Obama is stressing the need to create 3 million new jobs, we must understand that “JOB RETENTION IS AS IMPORTANT AS JOB CREATION”.
A survey conducted by the National Association for the Self-Employed (NASE) disclosed these disturbing facts. The NASE survey is at http://www.nase.org . See the NASE News for the Survey on Toxic Mortgages.
According to this survey, it is estimated that 3,709,800 small business owners hold Alt-A and other toxic mortgages, and 1,279,800 are already delinquent as they have missed one to three or more monthly mortgage payments at mid-November, before the expected Resets that are scheduled to begin in 4th Quarter 2008 through 2012.
The solution lies in the hands of Congress as they meet in January to structure an economic stimulus package. Congress should take note of this survey and be “proactive” in addressing the situation, rather than “reactive” as the case has been in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis.
We can’t afford another shock to our economic system at this time. This 2nd Wave of Foreclosures which will be caused by the ALT-A and Option ARMs will not only result in Foreclosures, but also Job Loss.
Kevin,
Your argument is really only about some details. Fact of the matter is, condos are collapsing in Miami from a multitude of issues basically resulting from horrible mortgage behavior from buyers, sellers, banks and RE professionals. Moving the blame from subprime to some other issue does not change the fact that condos are in trouble. Personally, i dont care if a building is in foreclosure trouble due to subprime or fraud-they are all linked together. Were you bearing any fiduciary responsibility when you encouraged buyers during the bubble? Buildings suffering through foreclosure issues will have the same outcome regardless of how the foreclosures originated-the buildings value will collapse.
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