Happy Birthday to me.

BTW its my Birthday today.

I turn 29 years old, the last "good" birthday to have.

I have entered the Capitulation stage.

I have entered the stage of the housing crash known as capitulation.

Main Entry: ca·pit·u·la·tion

Pronunciation: \kə-ˌpi-chə-ˈlā-shən\

Function: noun

Date: 1535

1: a set of terms or articles constituting an agreement between governments
2 a: the act of surrendering or yielding b: the terms of surrender


I have reached the point where I realize I am not going to be able to sell my condo. With much nicer units languishing on the market for months, priced 10% below what I paid for my inferior unit, I realized that there is no hope of selling and I have given up.

It has almost left me with a sense of peace, I liken it to someone realizing that they are going to die and understanding that there is nothing they can do about it, the person reaches a point where they accept that fate and are at peace with it.

I am have acceped the fact I cannot sell my condo and I will be stuck here for a long time. I am going to make the most of it by re-painting it, getting rid of some old furniture, and maybe buying a nice book shelf.



I am going to try and be thankful that I live in a place that costs me less to own than equivlent rent in the area, and be thankful that I do not live in bubble markets like Miami or California where I could be a lot worse off and actually be renting the same house for cheaper.

I have entered the stage of housing capitulation, and I am at peace.

How to sell your House

HousingFEAR Humor

Political Prognostications

Republican

IOWA
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Ron Paul (media finally begins to take Ron Paul seriously)

New Hampshire
1) Romney
2) Ron Paul (I still think Paul can surprise everyone and win)
3) McCain

South Carolina
1) Huckabee
2) Ron Paul
3) Romney

Nevada
1) Ron Paul
2) Romney
3) McCain

Michigan
1) Ron Paul
2) Romney
3) Huckabee


Based on this estimate if you award 5 points for a first place finish, 3 points for a second, and 1 for a third (I know this is not how its done, but just making a point)

Ron Paul = 17
Romney = 15
Huckabee = 11
McCain = 2

If there is not vote fraud (my worst fear is they will do this to deny Ron Paul) I really see him being ahead after the first 5 states with a narrow lead over Romney.

Misc thoughts...

I see Romney winning Utah, and Massachusetts.
Huckabee will win Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi
Giuliani will win Florida, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

I still think Ron Paul can win Texas and California and get the nomination. Iowa is crucial though, even though I doubt he will win, he really has to finish third to get media attention going into New Hampshire.

Third in Iowa would be a considered a success and fourth would be a moderate disappointment for Paul supporters and his campaign, anything less than fourth would be a disaster.

Immigrants trashed my house

By JACQUES BILLEAUD Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, December 19, 2007 8:56 PM MST

SURPRISE, Ariz. (AP) - Unable to sell his house in suburban Phoenix's anemic real estate market, Jason Winterholler rented to a couple who paid the deposit in cash and didn't haggle over price.

It was a deal he came to regret.

The renters were fronts for immigrant smugglers who used the house as a hiding place for illegal immigrants and trashed the home. In October, a SWAT team drove an armored personnel carrier onto the lawn and raided the house, rounding up nearly two dozen people.

“That was the biggest disappointment. I definitely felt violated,” said Winterholler, a high school athletic director now living in Pasadena, Calif. He said that whenever he spoke to the renters, “everything seemed OK.”Immigrant smugglers are seeing a business opportunity in the nation's mortgage crisis: They are renting vacant new homes in the Phoenix suburbs and using them as stash houses for the people they have slipped across the Mexican border, authorities say.

Stash houses are stopover points where smugglers collect their fees and make travel arrangements for immigrants headed to points throughout the country.

The homeowners, often out-of-state residents who bought the houses as investments, get suckered into renting to immigrant smugglers because they are desperate to generate income from properties that aren't selling, authorities say. The background checks they do on the prospective renters are not as rigorous as they might otherwise be.

Immigrant smugglers “are opportunistic,” said Troy Henley, deputy special agent in charge of investigations for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Arizona. “They will go where it's easiest and where it gives them the most benefit.”

The Phoenix metropolitan area is believed to have about 1,000 immigrant stash houses. Exactly how many of them are new houses that languished on the market and were rented out in desperation is unclear. But authorities say they are seeing more and more such cases.

Immigration authorities elsewhere said they have no evidence the same thing is happening in other cities near the country's southern border.

Arizona is the busiest entry point for illegal immigrants coming through Mexico, and Phoenix's proximity to the border has make it the nation's busiest smuggling hub.

Smugglers started renting vacant new suburban homes in Phoenix a few months ago, and the practice is expected to increase during the peak smuggling season that begins in mid-January, authorities say.

Although knowingly renting homes to immigrant smugglers leaves properties open to seizure by the government, immigration agents said they don't believe the homeowners are intentionally helping the traffickers, because most people would not want their new properties to get trashed.

After getting a tip that smugglers were holding immigrants for ransom at Winterholler's home 25 miles from downtown Phoenix, police girded for a violent confrontation that never came. They entered by knocking down a door and punching holes in the ceiling so they could throw in tear gas canisters.

Twenty-two illegal immigrants were kept in an upstairs bedroom that had plywood nailed over its windows to prevent escapes and a milk jug that served as a toilet. Flies buzzed amid the empty beer cars and open bags of garbage that littered the house.

No smugglers were arrested; they may have given immigration agents the slip. The home had $11,000 in damage. The couple who acted as the front for the renters disappeared.

The housing glut here is blamed on the mortgage crisis along with overbuilding by developers who misjudged the appeal of homes a considerable commuting distance from Phoenix.

Homes like Winterholler's appeal to smugglers because of the privacy. They have garage doors that allow people to be brought in undetected. Subdivisions with lots of vacant homes have fewer neighbors who might call police. Unlike motels and apartments, which also are used as stash houses, houses don't share walls or courtyards with the neighbors.

And while smugglers have long used rental houses, these new suburban homes are in places where neighbors wouldn't expect to find illegal immigrants hiding.

Tyler Renner, who lives on the same block, said he and other neighbors never noticed people or sounds coming from the Winterholler house.

Police said homeowners should do credit and criminal background checks on prospective tenants. They also warned owners to be skeptical of overly favorable deals and resist the urge to skip background checks just because the prospective renters seem nice.

Winterholler, who moved into his roughly $260,000 house brand-new in 2006 and lived there until last August, said the man and woman who rented the place provided four references, all of which checked out.

As tenants for nearly three months, the couple always paid on time and answered Winterholler's calls, he said.

“I remember when they came over,” Winterholler said. “We gave them water. I shook his hand.”

This is honestly what my neighborhood looks like right now

I live in an apartment to condo conversion. Each building has 20 individual units.

In the building I live in right now out of 20 units...

5 have never been sold and are owned by the builder. (currently for sale by builder)
4 are for sale by the current owners
1 is abandoned (Because I think the old guy living there has passed away)
10 are occupied and not for sale.

As you can see I really have no chance of getting out, and I am trapped here.

...Help me!

lol

House Lust

The collapse of the housing market is this year's big business story, but it's a crisis driven by more than simple economics. Like the dot-com boom before it, our soaring home values were fueled partly by psychology, as so many of us dreamed of trading up, building from scratch or renovating—and as so many dinner parties devolved into real estate gossip. In "HOUSE LUST: America's Obsession with our Homes," NEWSWEEK's Resident Expert Daniel McGinn explores why so many Americans became so enamored with homes—and why many remain so even after the boom has faded.

HousingFEAR humor

No one wants to talk about the elephant in the room.

When was the last time you saw Americans this excited about any political campaign?

Ron Paul fan or not, check out what happens at exactly 1:36 into this clip. This is really one of the coolest things I have ever seen, and I really think the MSM claiming 4% nationally in the polls is completely clueless.

4% does not get this reaction.

Condo Crunch

Condo Crunch

For Boom-Time Buyers, the Stakes Are High as Values Drop

Pretty interesting article about the situation of condo's being converted back into apartments now that the real estate crash is here.

Official TEAPARTY 2007 Thread!!! GO RON GO!

As of 11:00 PM Eastern Time on Dec 15th 2007 Ron Paul has roughly $11,550,000. Anything you see in the animation below beyond that is what will be attributed to the TEAPARTY 07 drive.

Win or lose in 2008, This is the day that all Americans who are sick of voting for the better of two evils, sick of being told who we should vote for by the media take back our political system and make sure our voice is heard.

Even if you don't have $100, give $10 if you believe in the message that Ron Paul speaks for us.

The media can no longer ignore the revolution that is sweeping through America!

Fantastic Clip of Jim Cramer and Ron Paul discussing the Federal Reserve's roll in the Housing Bubble

Ron Paul and Jim Cramer lay it all on the line and tell the truth about the economic disaster the USA is facing. Of course the root cause lays with the flawed monetary policy and corrupt federal reserve which answers to no one and has no checks & balance.

Really fantastic interview even for those who do not like Ron Paul but want to understand how this whole mess happened in the first place.

Americans are starting to wake up.

HousingFEAR thought of the day

Should we really feel sorry for mortgage brokers and Realtors who enjoyed five years of astronomical earnings during the bubble now that the party is over?

BACKGROUND INFORMATION:WaMu purchased the subprime credit card company Providian in 2005, Here you can read 2 articles I wrote about them back in 2001

WaMu makes horrible business desicion to purchase Providian in 2005

HousingFEAR wants to take you to a blast from the past!

My first writing experience online was writing for a website called Epinions.com where you would write reviews on companies and products.

In 2001, and 2002 I wrote two reviews about a loan shark credit card company named Providian. When I was first establishing my credit, I had to go through them to get a credit card, and they took advantage of me with a big annual fee, exorbitant 20%+ interest rate, and other shady practices.

After paying my bills on time, I received offers from real credit card lenders and dumped Providian. However, the experience left me disgusted with them and I wanted to warn others of their practices.

The point behind this all is that some genius at WaMu actually purchased this horrible company in 2005, so it is no surprise to me at all that the same genius was probably behind WaMu's heavy involvement in the sub prime mortgage lending debacle.

Needless to say, here is an article i wrote back in 2002 about Providian for your reading pleasure. And yes, I do find it somehow satisfying to see these snakes get burned.

_________________________________________________________________
Article written about Providian Classic Visa in Oct 2001
_________________________________________________________________


______________________________________________________________
Article written about Providian Aria Visa in Jan 2002
______________________________________________________________


Very Nostalgic. :)

Again, the meltdown of WaMu really comes as no shock to me at all, I hope after reading my reviews it doesn't shock you either, that whoever was running this company in 2005 and thought it was a great idea to purchase sub prime monstrosity Providian would also be making bad home loans.

In fact, it makes perfect sense.

Meltdown of WaMu

MORTGAGE MELTDOWN
Washington Mutual to close 190 offices

It will shut 12 Bay Area home loan centers, expects to lose $1 billion in 1st quarter of '08

Washington Mutual Inc., the nation's largest savings and loan, said Monday that problems in the mortgage and credit markets are forcing it to close offices, lay off more than 3,000 workers and set aside up to $1.6 billion for loan losses in its fourth quarter.

Additionally, the company slashed its quarterly dividend 73 percent and said it plans a $2.5 billion offering of convertible preferred stock. Washington Mutual has not yet priced the offering, but increasing the total number of company shares will dilute their value for existing stockholders. In after-hours trading, shares fell $1.73, or nearly 9 percent, to $18.15 following the company's announcement.

Chairman Kerry Killinger said in a statement that "significant expense reductions" were needed "to further fortify" the bank's capital and liquidity.

The Seattle thrift dismantled much of its subprime mortgage business in September, cutting 1,000 jobs related to the sale of home loans to people with questionable credit. It folded the remaining subprime operations into its regular mortgage business.

The savings and loan will now get out of the subprime mortgage business entirely.

The company said it will close about 190 of its 335 home loan centers and sales offices, shut down nine call centers, and eliminate 2,600 home loan workers and 550 corporate and support jobs.

Locally, Washington Mutual spokeswoman Elizabeth Borrelli said 110 jobs would be eliminated with the closure of a retail home loan fulfillment center in Pleasanton. Another 20 jobs will be cut in San Francisco. Elsewhere in California, Washington Mutual will close home-loan-related offices in Downey (Los Angeles County), 35 jobs; Irwindale (Los Angeles County), 35 jobs; and Irvine, 230 jobs.

Spokesman Gary Kirshner said Washington Mutual will also shutter 31 home loan centers in Northern California. These will include 12 Bay Area locations: two each in San Francisco and San Jose, plus one center each in Dublin, Lafayette, Los Altos, Oakland, Pleasant Hill, San Bruno, San Rafael and Saratoga.

These changes, meant to address what the company called "unprecedented challenges in the mortgage and credit markets," will save the thrift $140 million in the fourth quarter. But the company still expects to post a loss, due in part to a $1.6 billion charge for the write-down of goodwill associated with the shrinking home loans business.

On top of that, Washington Mutual increased its loan loss provision to $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter, from the $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion predicted by executives in early November.

For the first quarter of 2008, the company said it expects loan losses to total $1.8 billion to $2 billion. Loan losses will remain high throughout the year, the thrift added.

The company also slashed its quarterly dividend to 15 cents per share from its most recent dividend of 56 cents per share, for savings of more than $1 billion.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded several long-term and short-term ratings for the company and said in a statement that the move "was based on its view that credit losses from WaMu's mortgage operations will be noticeably higher than previously estimated." The credit rating agency said it doesn't expect the company's profitability to begin to recover until 2010.

Fitch Ratings also downgraded the thrift's credit ratings.

Before the news, shares rose about 85 cents, or more than 4 percent, to close at $19.88 Monday.

Housing Bubble & Crash Humor.

Ron Paul Winning in Alaska

Ron Paul is Winning in Alaska!

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- In a poll conducted Monday, Dec. 10, Channel 2 News asked which GOP presidential candidate Alaskan Republicans plan to support in the Super Tuesday caucus.

A slim majority of respondents support Ron Paul, a Texas congressman known for wanting to abolish the IRS and opposing the Iraq War.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who's surging in national polls as well as Iowa caucus polls, came in a close second.

Which Republican presidential candidate will you support in Alaska's caucus? Rudy Giuliani -- 14% Mike Huckabee -- 22% John McCain -- 9% Ron Paul -- 29% Mitt Romney -- 9% Fred Thompson -- 12% Other -- 6%

All polls conducted by Channel 2 News and KTUU.com are unscientific.